I’ll never forget the backlash I received when word of the Delta and Northwest merger was announced. Reporters from around the tri-state called to ask my opinion about the “exciting” prospect of seeing the two airlines combined and what I said (surprisingly) shocked many people.

The Cincinnati HUB is toast.

Executives from Delta Air Lines called me, saying I should stop spreading such false reports, since the airline had not made any announcement about downsizing CVG and the plans were to maintain current service levels.

Yeah, right.

It did not take a rocket scientist to see that the CVG airport was in trouble. The proximity of the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport to Detroit, which was one of Northwest’s main HUBs, made it clear that both would not survive a merger of the two airlines.

The irony was CVG became a HUB for Delta in the early 1980’s when it was clear that operating a Hub from Memphis, with its’ close proximity to the Atlanta passenger distribution center, was not a viable option. Therefore another city, one to the northeast, was selected to move the Memphis operation to: CVG.

The airport executives were thrilled that such a huge revenue machine was coming to their airport. Immediate and expensive expansion plans were quickly commissioned to make sure that the airport could respond to Delta’s growing needs. No expense was deemed too much as the airport was remodeled and expanded, while additional runways were constructed to accommodate the increased flight activity.

By 2005 the CVG facility saw nearly 23 million passengers cruise through the HUB. Life was great and the economic engine that was known as the CVG HUB created tens of thousands of jobs, leading to unprecedented growth in many areas.

Then in early 2008, it was rumored that Northwest and Delta could merge into the world’s largest airline. It was then the writing began to appear on the wall, spelling the end of CVG’s incredible story of success.

By 2010, fewer than 8 million passengers passed through the once bustling HUB at CVG and the city and airport leaders were left to pick up the pieces, struggling to salvage as much as possible in the aftermath of a mega-merger that left a HUB in a state of shock and disrepair.

Now we have the announcement that American and US Airways are planning to merge into the latest world’s largest airline. It should be noted that the combined airline will have eight HUBs and an airline of that size should, by current math, need only six HUBs, if that.

So what now? Which HUBs will be forced to walk the path of so many before it? (Cincinnati, Columbus, Indianapolis, Dayton, St. Louis, Nashville, Pittsburgh…)

If you listen to executives from American and US Airways, there is nothing to worry about - they intend on keeping all of the HUBs in place and operating at full capacity. If you look closely enough, I am sure somewhere the airlines are telling aviation analysts to stop spreading false reports.

One would need to consciously ignore history to suggest that HUB consolidation would not follow an airline merger of this size. Currently the HUBs used by these two airlines include:

Chicago O’Hare (AA)
Dallas (AA)
Miami (AA)
New York’s Kennedy Airport (AA)
Los Angeles (AA)
Charlotte (US)
Philadelphia (US)
Phoenix (US)

Which ones are in trouble? The prevailing wisdom is that Charlotte and Philadelphia will take the biggest hit and that has city and airport leaders in those cities more than a little concerned. However, I think in the end Phoenix and Philadelphia will be hurt the most from the merger process and Charlotte may see, at most, a slight reduction in air schedule.

The process is inevitable, only the length of time getting there is in doubt. The other inevitable fact is the absolute garbage that will be coming from both airline press rooms saying how each HUB will be maintained for the foreseeable future.

Others around the country may be tempted to believe that line, but for those of us here we understand that assurances made do not necessarily translate into promises kept.